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...Nber working paper series understanding crude oil prices james d hamilton http www org papers w national bureau of economic research massachusetts avenue cambridge ma november i thank severin borenstein menzie chinn lutz kilian david reifen and four anonymous referees for helpful comments on an earlier draft the views expressed herein are those author s do not necessarily reflect circulated discussion comment purposes they have been peer reviewed or subject to review by board directors that accompanies official publications all rights reserved short sections text exceed two paragraphs may be quoted without explicit permission provided full credit including notice is given source no jel q abstract this examines factors responsible changes in reviews statistical behavior relates these predictions theory looks detail at key features petroleum demand supply topics discussed include role commodity speculation opec resource depletion concludes although scarcity rent made a negligible contrib...