macroeconomic default modelling and stress testing dietske simons and ferdinand rolwes february 20 2008 abstract this paper applies a macroeconomic based model for estimating de fault probabilities on dutch data ...
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...Macroeconomic default modelling and stress testing dietske simons ferdinand rolwes february abstract this paper applies a based model for estimating de fault probabilities on dutch data the rst part of focuses relation between variables behaviour rms convincing relationship with gdp growth oil price to lesser extent interest exchange rate exists second assesses scenario two con secutive quarters zero it can be concluded that short recession does not inuence signicantly test therefore underestimates true credit risk contents introduction concept models aggregate dynamic e ects shocks in description interesting properties estimation results analysis discussion conclusion literature b econometric theory maximum likelihood hypothesis condence set construction is step assessing exposure andpotential losses faced by nancial institutions are also basic inputs when evaluating systemic sys tems predictors natural practitioners industry as well regulators especially under new capi tal adequacy f...