Understanding Order Flow October 2005 Martin D. D. Evans1 Richard K. Lyons Georgetown University and NBER U.C. Berkeley and NBER Department of Economics Haas School of Business Washington DC ...
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...Understanding order flow october martin d evans richard k lyons georgetown university and nber u c berkeley department of economics haas school business washington dc ca tel evansm edu abstract this paper develops a model for end user ow in the fx market ad dresses several puzzling ndings first estimated priceimpact from di erent enduser segments is dollarfordollar quite second traditionally thought to be liquidity motivated actually has power forecast exchange rates third about one ows month ahead comes ability future whereas re maining twothirds applies price components unrelated we show that all these features arise naturally heterogeneity setting where provides timely information marketmakers state macroeconomy keywords forecasting microstructure jel codes f g corresponding author both authors thank national science foundation nancial sup port including clearing house micro based research on at faculty introduction addresses its empirical implications by mean transactions initiated...