The words contained in this file might help you see if this file matches what you are looking for:

...View metadata citation and similar papers at core ac uk brought to you by provided lsbu research open forecasting macroeconomic fundamentals in economic crises maurizio bovi roy cerqueti italian national institute of statistics istat piazza dell indipendenza rome italy tel fax email mbovi it sapienza university faculty economics via del castro laurenziano uniroma macerata department law crescimbeni unimc abstract thepaperstudies the way turmoils inuence lay agents predictions recent have fact led several au thors challenge standard that all are muth rational hence omniscient homogeneous forecasters this paper assumed be heterogeneous their predictive ability heterogeneity is modeled assum ing people equal loss functions but dierent asymmetry parameters adopted methodological tools grounded operational ory specically we develop a dynamic stochastic optimization problem which solved performing extensive monte carlo simulations results show less sophis ticated our setting medians never pe...